Let me take you back to that electric night of May 15, 2018, when the NBA draft lottery reshaped franchises and created ripple effects we're still feeling today. I remember watching the broadcast unfold, my notebook filled with mock drafts and probability charts scattered across the coffee table as the envelope openings revealed one surprise after another. The Phoenix Suns, despite having only a 25% chance at the top pick, secured the first overall selection—a moment that would eventually bring them Deandre Ayton, though I'll admit I was among those who thought Luka Dončić might have been the smarter choice given what we know now.
The real drama unfolded with the Sacramento Kings jumping from seventh to second spot, defying their 18.3% probability of remaining at seven and their mere 5.3% chance of moving up to second. I've followed the draft for over fifteen years, and these statistical anomalies always fascinate me—the Kings' leap represented one of those moments where probability models collide with pure luck. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks moved from sixth to third, while the Memphis Grizzlies slid from second to fourth in what felt like a cruel twist of fate for a franchise desperately needing a franchise-altering talent.
What struck me most that night was watching the Cleveland Cavaliers, who had acquired the Brooklyn Nets' pick via the Kyrie Irving trade, secure the eighth selection despite having just a 2.8% chance at a top-three pick. Having covered the Cavaliers during LeBron James' second stint, I recognized the significance—this became Collin Sexton, the "Young Bull" who'd eventually help the post-LeBron era find some direction, though I've always wondered if they might have been better served trading that pick for immediate help during LeBron's final season.
The Dallas Mavericks' situation particularly intrigued me professionally. They'd traded their 2018 first-round pick to Atlanta in the Luka Dončić trade, protected top-five, and when it landed at fifth, it conveyed to the Hawks. I remember thinking at the time that Dallas had made a brilliant move, essentially using Atlanta's own pick protection against them to secure their future superstar. Sometimes the most fascinating aspects of the lottery aren't about who gets picks, but who controls them through these complex trade arrangements.
Reflecting on team building philosophies reminds me of Eastern coach Mensur Bajramovic's interesting comment about wanting his team to play with the Ginebra mantra when facing the Gin Kings in front of their fans. This resonates with what we saw in the 2018 draft aftermath—teams weren't just selecting talent, but building identities. The Phoenix Suns chose Ayton over Dončić in part because they believed his two-way potential fit their vision, while the Sacramento Kings selected Marvin Bagley III despite Dončić still being available, a decision that continues to draw criticism from analysts like myself who valued international proven production over stateside potential.
The Chicago Bulls landing the seventh pick instead of jumping into the top-three proved particularly costly, as they selected Wendell Carter Jr., who showed flashes but couldn't elevate their franchise trajectory significantly. Having visited their facility during pre-draft workouts that year, I sensed their disappointment at not moving up—sometimes the lottery balls just don't bounce your way, no matter how much your fan base deserves a break.
What fascinates me most in retrospect is how differently teams approached their selections based on their lottery position. The teams that slipped, like Memphis at fourth, seemed to make safer picks like Jaren Jackson Jr., while those who jumped up, like Sacramento at second, appeared to swing for the fences with Bagley. In my experience covering the draft process, this psychological impact of lottery movement often influences decision-making more than teams would publicly admit.
The 2018 draft class has proven exceptionally deep, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander going eleventh to Charlotte before being traded to Oklahoma City, and Michael Porter Jr. falling to fourteenth due to injury concerns. I've always believed Porter's slide to Denver represented one of the biggest steals in recent draft history, despite his back issues—the kind of calculated risk that separates innovative front offices from conventional ones.
Looking back five years later, the 2018 lottery created winners and losers beyond what we could have imagined that night. Phoenix got their big man but missed on a generational talent, Sacramento made a controversial choice that still haunts them, Atlanta ended up with both Trae Young and additional assets, while Dallas maneuvered their way to their franchise cornerstone. The lottery doesn't just distribute talent—it tests organizational philosophies and reveals which franchises truly understand how to build sustainable success.
